For several years I’ve warned readers of this website that this country is facing a massive fiscal crisis because of too many years of profligate spending. It’s not just the U.S. government, either. It’s China, Russia, Japan, Greece, Brazil, Portugal, Ireland and many others. Because these countries don’t back up their currencies with cold, hard assets, the value of these fiat currencies is whatever the respective government says it is. If a government overspends, then it just devalues its currency and uses inflation to lessen the pressure of its federal debt.
That’s a ponzi scheme, and ever since Charles Ponzi’s stamp selling scam in Boston in the 1920s, the world has known that even legitimate businesses (or governments) that continually spend more than they take in…eventually collapse.
On this website I’ve occasionally warned you that a fiscal calamity could ripple across the nation’s Homeowners Associations and because of a history of mismanagement by HOA bullies, mortgage companies will be increasingly reluctant to lend money where neighborhood associations are mired in a pattern of litigation. If a home buyer can’t get a mortgage to buy your house, what is your house really worth? Did the HOA really fulfill its promise to protect your property values?
Now, going one step further, pay very close attention to news events of this next week. A fiscal disaster that could profoundly affect the U.S. housing market could happen as early as next weekend. Oil prices across the world have collapsed to under thirty dollars a barrel. Some on Wall Street say the price could eventually go as low as sixteen dollars a barrel.
Saudi Arabia, one of America’s staunchest allies, is panicking. Oil sales amount to 75% of that country’s income. For years, the Saudis have pegged the value of the riyal to the U.S. Dollar. If they pull that peg and the riyal is devalued against the dollar, then Katy bar the doors. There’s no one who can predict how this will impact the world economy.
Massive inflation might help the individual who holds a large fixed interest mortgage. For many decades homeowners have been able to inflate their mortgages away. But a frightened financial industry doesn’t like to offer reasonably priced mortgages in risky neighborhoods.
I’m not an economist so I’m open to criticism. But these are interesting times, aren’t they?